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Many readers have been curious about the specifications we expect for the new generation of Powerbooks which are due quite soon now. Reader Nick Winterhalter wrote in with a particularly insightful look of his own at this very matter:
From: Nick Winterhalter [email protected]
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2002 14:21:28 -0700
To: [email protected]
Subject: New Powerbooks - Conjecture
Based on the rumors at hand, what is your best guess for what the next PowerBooks will include? Let´s not fantasize, remembering that Apple is very stingy with hardware upgrades.
1. When? These prognostications assume that we´ll have an update between October 15th and November 30th, 2002.
We might note here that it would be more accurate to say Apple has been forced by the realities of its hardware designs and the marketplace to be stingy with hardware upgrades lately. Keep in mind, we´ve seen the very significant Xserve released this year, and the Xraid is soon to come. Steve Jobs has been dropping more than a couple of hints lately that the best by far is to come in the next year or so.
As far as the timing goes, that´s a very reasonable ballpark you´ve suggested. A lot of readers want something more specific - we think it will probably come in the earlier half of that time frame, but frankly Apple is commited to absolutely no specific date yet, and ultimately this is all dependent on a slew of market variables and a couple of guys in suits and/or blue jeans.
2. Processor Though the rumors of 1Ghz PowerBook sightings are probably true it doesn´t mean they´re going to be released this time around. I think the current 800 might already be a 933 in disguise. I´m tempted by the increased bus speed option, though. A 167Mhz bus (the technology is already there in the desktops) could bring small speed bumps along for the ride. My vote right now, unfortunately, is for an 800/933 @ 133Mhz combo. I think that they´ll ride the "feature set" rather than processor speed.
You´re probably right here, Nick. 167MHz busses are a bit of a kludge on existing PPC 7455 processors, are significantly hotter, and will drain more battery power. They could also significantly raise costs because PC166 SDRAM SO-DIMM memory for laptops is not quite as cheap as other forms of single-rate memory. We still might see this nonetheless, but it´s healthy to be a bit conservative here.
There´s a lot of pressure for Apple to cross the 1GHz barrier with its Powerbook, to help it retain its spot among even die-hard Unix/Linux/BSD and Windows users as the ultimate laptop. Whether that is a practical possibility at this point is debatable; cooling re-design would probably be necessary for anything more than 1GHz, but that much could be shoe-horned into the existing design if users can be expected to tolerate almost as much heat as a high-end Pentium 4M laptop. Supply is a whole different issue, and we would never bet the farm on anything that involves Motorola.
Still, we´re fairly optimistic that 933 is a very conservative speed. 1GHz is quite a likely high end CPU speed, with 800 or even 867MHz taking over the entry level. Only Steve knows for sure at this point, and with the dock lockout in effect, perhaps even he is gritting his teeth about this one at the moment.
3. Bluetooth With the iSync beta out this is all but a given. The only thing holding this back would be unseen bugs or other implementation difficulties. I think it´d be almost impossible to release without it at this point (which hopefully won´t mean a delay).
Everyone else seems to be sure that Apple is going to implement built-in Bluetooth. We´re not as sure, but even we admit that the market is quite ripe for it, and the costs involved are nominal. It´s a matter of space inside the ultrathin enclosure, reliable supply, and the stability of the drivers which will enable it all. All things considered, this still appears to be a shoo-in.
4. Internal SuperDrive It seems very likely.
Indeed. This is where essentially everyone agrees. Apple must provide Superdrive functionality in at least the high-end PBG4 now that similar drives are available in several new Windows laptops. It has reportedly been difficult to get this DVD-RW/CD-RW into the ultrathin titanium enclosure, but it has been done and it is the key feature we´ll be hearing about soon.
5. Graphics This is a tough one. The ATI 7500 Mobility is a pretty good chip set. I´d even venture to say that is the first 3D accelerator in an Apple portable that has ever been close to current in terms of performance and ram. It´s new for the current generation of machines. It´s a hot chip. Moving up to 9500 Mobility may present additional heat barriers (as would an upgraded processor). Though I´d like to see them push the envelope more, I´m guessing the 7500 Mobility will stay for the next round with a possible bump to 64MB.
At this point, we´d consider a 64MB Mobility 7500 and a Mobility 9000 about equally likely. Remaining with the 32MB Mobility 7500 isn´t out of the question but it would be a disappointment at a time when the Powerbook has for the first time in several years been able to keep up with the latest in portable graphics capabilities. The jury is still out on this element.
6. New case Nope.
We concur. The titanium enclosure has been a cornerstone of Apple industrial design for the past two years, and there is still significant life left in it. There may be small variations, perhaps even a slight 1-3mm thickening to accomodate the Superdrive, but not much else will change.
7. Airport connectivity I think they´ll wait for the rumored major case revision to fix the abominably limited range problems. Possible tweak to improve range, but nothing significant. As a side note, I agree that the latest Titaniums have better range than their predecessors. I wonder if this is partially due to the improved "interference shielding" on the 7500 Mobility chipset?
There have been reports of improved bandwidth, packet loss, and range with the new PBG4s, but there are two generations of PBG4 currently in testing and it is not clear which generation is being referred to in reports detailing said improvements. Right now we aren´t expecting any major changes to Airport hardware for any Mac until mid-2003.
8. Would this package woo me?
* PowerBook G4 800/933
* 133Mhz system bus
* Internal Bluetooth connectivity
* Internal SuperDrive
* 32MB-64MB ATI 7500 Mobility graphics accelerator
Yes, I suppose so. Bluetooth and the SuperDrive could get me there. I can see Steve making a big deal out of both of them and not even mentioning the processor speed bumps. It fits with Apple´s "functionality before performance" motif.
We´re not too sure we´ll have a compelling use for Bluetooth for another year or two, personally. We have a couple of Pismo PBG3s, an 800MHz PBG4, and a 500MHz upgraded Wallstreet PBG3 in circulation among several contributing writers, and we don´t see a compelling reason to upgrade to new Powerbooks unless the processors clock in at 1GHz+, include a 64MB Radeon Mobility 9000 or better graphics accelerator, and some type of core motherboard performance improvement.
Your estimates are wisely conservative, and you will probably be quite close to the mark when Apple issues the press releases some crisp morning in Cupertino a few weeks hence. Until then, we´ll be refining our recon, and checking our bank balances....
